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At HRO World Europe, hundreds of millions of euroes in HRO deals were conceived… stand by for birth notices.

by Jay Whitehead, Harry Feinberg

What is the gestation period for an HRO deal? In North America, we would be able to give you a relatively accurate number, based on the size, scope, and location of the contracting company. In Europe, however, the numbers are just now starting to come in. But we will soon have a much bigger data sample. That is because the big bundle of corporate mating activities we saw at HRO World Europe 2004 on November 23 and 24 in Brussels will surely start bearing fruit in 2005. We are counting the weeks, watching for birth notices, and keeping track for you.

Without using too much politicallyincorrect sexual imagery, we want to give a representative picture to those of you who were unable to attend the HRO World Europe conference. Imagine this: All at one time, the whos who of European HR innovators109 senior HR executives and HRO buyers from 17 countries together with 208 analysts, lawyers, consultants, and providerspacked into one of Europes finest hotels, the Conrad Brussels. During the two-plus action-packed days, the attendees saw 47 world-class speakers in 21 sessions cover all aspects of European HRO and HR shared services.

What happens when highly-focused decision makersprofessionals who would have never met under any other circumstancescome together in such a place to share their expertise? Call it courting if you want. But by any other name, it is still a mating dance. Some found love. Some found information. Some made friends. Some found fear. Some just found it interesting. Regardless of who found what, the post-conference data for which most people have asked is how many deals came out of it?

DEAL-COUNTING AT HRO WORLD EUROPE

Deal-counting is part science, part art. To do it effectively, you need three things. First, you need high-level, trust-based relationships with providers, consultants, and buyers. Second, you need a large enough sample to be representative. And third, you have to be willing to ask for and get information that people are extremely uncomfortable about offering. Often, drinks are required to dislodge deal data.

To count deals, we use a time-honored method. We ask questions of a lot of people. We ask them often. We ask them fast, in a couple of languages. And we write their answers
down so we do not forget. (Often we write them down because we ask many of our questions in bars, where memory is less reliable.) Some would say our method is more art than science. And those who say that would be correct. Yet those who call us unscientific would be the same people who envy our results.

At HRO World Europe, our sources told us about 22 relationships commenced that, were they to consummate as HRO contracts, would generate a total of 510 million Euros. That number bears repeating: 510 million Euros. While the 510 million Euro number is an estimate, we can put it in perspective. During the 2003 edition of the HRO World Conference in New York City, using the same methodology, we counted $1.1 billion in deals conceived at the conference. It took an average of nine months for this $1.1 billion worth of contracts to be closed and announced. Among the largest of these deals was the Goodyear-ACS contract. At HRO World/NY HR Week 2004 in NYC, the number was $2.2 billion, a few of which were announced within six months, and the balance of which will be announced in early 2005.

So while HRO World Europe 2004 was small in attendance compared with our 2,700-registrant HRO World 2004 in New York, HRO World Europes estimated 510 million Euros in eventual contracts shows that European HRO is big and growing quickly. After all, 510 million Euros in contracts from such a small sample of 317 attendees may indicate that European HRO is very close to the same size as North American HRO. And that would make sense, because after all, HRO was a European invention. Stay tuned for HRO World
Europe 2005, which promises to be bigger and better and even more impressive.